Guinea-Bissau, 2025 — military coup conspiracy
Event Summary
This entry is coded 31 October 2025, corresponding to the alleged coup plot in Guinea-Bissau revealed at the end of October 2025, which foreshadowed the 26 November 2025 coup that ousted President Umaro Sissoco Embalo. At the end of October 2025 a number of senior officers were arrested in connection with an alleged plot, coming amid an extremely tense pre-election climate: general elections were scheduled for 23 November 2025, the main opposition party, the PAIGC, had been barred from the presidential race, ECOWAS observers had withdrawn after being threatened with expulsion, and the opposition disputed Embalo's legitimacy, with a Supreme Court ruling that his term had ended in September. Analysts described a feature of Bissau-Guinean politics in which coups beget more coups.
Less than a month later, on 26 November 2025, military officers seized power, arrested Embalo, and halted the electoral count, with critics alleging the takeover was staged to keep Embalo in power by proxy. The 31 October 2025 coding matches the end-October plot in which senior officers were arrested.
Researched Details
Researched
Independent research, added record by record. Hover any label for what it means.
Sources
Editorial Note
Cross-Reference
Only one dataset carries it. One of the three reference datasets we check against carries this event; the others do not list it. That is not a contradiction — the datasets cover different periods and use different thresholds — but it means the record has had less outside corroboration.
Identifiers for finding this same event in the other datasets:
- Cline Center id
40410312025
How the match is made is described in crossref-report.md.
Outcome and Target
Coup Atlas research identifies the target as: Embalo's government arrested senior officers over an alleged end-October plot.
Baseline coding: Plot discovered and disrupted before execution. Recorded leader fate: remained in office; not physically harmed. The baseline file does not name individual targets; researched names are kept in a separate layer.
Baseline Dataset Citation
Baseline Source-Document Entries
AllAfrica.com
The Pioneer
Infobae
This is the citation trail carried by the baseline dataset, grouped by outlet and rejoined from the line-wrapped original. Coup Atlas has not independently re-checked every document; read the original before citing a specific claim. URLs the import damaged beyond safe repair are shown as plain text and listed in citations-report.md. How this list is built →