01Repeat Instability
65.3%
A Successful Coup Often Isn’t the Last.
293 of 449 eligible successful coups were followed by another actual attempt or successful coup within five years in the same country.
Explore the Follow-Up →Read Beyond the Count
Findings Worth a Closer Look.
02Overlapping Actors
115 records
Foreign Backing Crosses Categories.
Only 11 events have Foreign-backed coup as the main type. 115 include the foreign-backed actor flag somewhere in their coding.
See What the Labels Hide →03The Denominator Matters
53.6%
Separate Action from Conspiracy.
472 of 881 actual attempts succeeded. Including 281 conspiracy records gives a different figure: 40.6%.
Compare Both Measures →The Next Chapter
How Often Does Another Coup Follow?
A second recorded attempt or success in the same country—not necessarily a second removal of the government. Every bar uses its own eligible starting events.
293 of 449 eligible starting events had another attempt or success within 5 years.
240 of 389 eligible starting events had another attempt or success within 5 years.
Bar scale: 0–100% of eligible starting events
Descriptive recurrence, not a causal effect or a country’s forecast. Observation cutoff: 2025-12-31.
Inspect the Included Records
One Type. Multiple Actors.
Foreign Backing Doesn’t Fit One Box.
These are two views of the same coded collection—not two separate groups to add together.
Count scale: 0–115 records. Includes conspiracies.
104 flagged records sit in other primary categories. This coding is not independent proof of foreign involvement or a complete tally of interventions.
Where the Flagged Records Sit
Military coup50
Dissident coup41
Foreign-backed coup11
Rebel coup10
Palace coup3
Ask What’s Being Counted
Two Percentages. Different Questions.
Conspiracies are recorded threats or plots, not actual failed coup attempts.
472 successful + 409 failed actual attempts = 881.
The same 472 successes, divided by 1,162 records including conspiracies.
Both bars use a 0–100% scale.
Read the Underlying Records →How These Findings Are Calculated
These are descriptive calculations from the current Coup Atlas collection, largely the Cline Center baseline. They do not establish causes, predict future coups, or measure the risk for countries without recorded events.
Recurrence uses events through 2025-12-31, excludes conspiracies, and only includes starting events with a complete follow-up window. A later event must be in the same country and on a later date. Overlapping windows count events, not independent countries; recent coups are excluded rather than counted as stable.
“Military only” requires both the starting and subsequent event to have the primary type Military coup. Actor flags can overlap; the primary event type cannot. Source coverage and definitions differ.
Download Calculations and Included Record IDs · Full Methodology · Dataset Documentation
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